by Dr Saleh al-Na'ami

Regardless of how authentic the declaration of reaching a new ceasefire between the Palestinian resistance and the Zionist Occupation, the latest escalation showed a hidden potential for a full-scale military offensive against Gaza. 

If the reasons that led to the escalation between the two sides remain, it will, sooner or later, lead to a new assault against Gaza that resembles the 2014 Israeli offensive against the coastal enclave.   

It’s worth mentioning that Hamas and the Zionist Occupation are heading to a fierce flare-up of fighting although both sides believe that such an escalation will not necessarily serve their interests in the meantime. 

The Israeli PM Netanyahu is under huge pressure to respond to kites and balloons being flown from Gaza, which has embarrassed the Zionist Occupation’s leadership.   

The fact that the economic sanctions imposed by the Israeli Occupation on Gaza didn’t influence the Palestinians’ determination to continue their popular protests and send kites into the Israeli entity added insult to the injury. Rather, the damage caused by the kites aggravated after the Israeli Occupation imposed its punitive measures on Gaza.

On the other hand, the Palestinian resistance, including Hamas, will not turn a blind eye to the Israeli attacks on Gaza, as it has realized that its response to the Israeli aggression is a necessary requirement to maintain the current rules of engagement by retaliating to the airstrikes launched by the Israeli Occupation.     

The Palestinian resistance is aware of the necessity to not repeat the same ‘mistake’ by refraining to respond to the continued Israeli aggression on Gaza after the end of the 2014 Israeli offensive on the coastal enclave. That ‘mistake’ promted the Israeli Occupation to expand its bombing range and target civilian properties and sensitive facilities that belong to the Palestinian resistance, as part of the Israeli ‘list of targets’ that is based on intelligence information

Despite the fact that the Israeli airstrikes on Gaza and the Palestinian resistance’s response to such aggression can escalate into a full-fledged offensive against the coastal enclave, both sides believe that such a military operation will only deteriorate its strategic position. 

The Israeli Occupation’s leadership realize that launching an offensive against Gaza will pave its way to re-occupy the coastal enclave, taking into consideration the serious security, political, and economic repercussions resulting from this move.    

According to the Israeli “state observer’s” report on the 2014 Israeli offensive against Gaza, the Israeli Occupation’s military will not be ordered to use lethal force to bring its military operation to an end, but also will be forced to begin its offensive with a ground operation that will lead to the re-occupation of the Gaza Strip, or at least part of it, which means completely ending Hamas’ control over the coastal enclave. 

Since there is a third party that can take control of Gaza after overthrowing Hamas’ administration of the coastal enclave, the Israeli Occupation will have two bitter options; either to withdraw from the Gaza Strip which will lead to the security situation to deteriorate at the southern front, or to stay in Gaza which means the Israeli Occupation have to bear the financial cost of running the coastal enclave, not to mention that such a scenario will lead the Israeli Occupation’s international position to deteriorate, besides the security and military repercussions resulting from this scenario. 

Moreover, the uncertainty at the northern front following Netanyahu’s failure in his latest visit to Moscow to secure a deal with Russia regarding Iran’s presence in Syria will increase the risk of going into a war with Iran and Hezbollah group that will pose a threat to the Israeli Occupation’s capability of launching a military operation in Gaza. 

As for the Palestinian resistance in Gaza, which is aware of the potential results of a new Israeli offensive against Gaza, including the loss the civilians’ lives and the civil infrastructure and properties, it realizes that repulsing the Israeli aggression on the coastal enclave will influence the continuation of the Great March of Return and make changes to the conflict environment, as well as cutting the road to the international and regional efforts aiming at improving the situation in Gaza.  

This will raise a question whether the internal Israeli interests, characterized with a populist nature, and the Palestinian resistance’s determination to maintain the latest rules of engagement will dispel both sides’ fear of the repercussion of a new military operation in Gaza.